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QUIPUSCOA SILVESTRE, Victor et al. Impact of climate changes and land use in the distribution of species of endemic genera of Asteraceae from Arequipa. Arnaldoa [online]. 2019, vol.26, n.1, pp.71-96. ISSN 1815-8242.

The Andean Cordillera is one of the world’s speciation centers or hotspots with a large number of endemic plants; however, constant change in climate and land use are significantly affecting the diversity and distribution of species. These changes will likely affect the distribution of Chionopappus benthamii S.F. Blake and Paquirea lanceolata (H. Beltrán & Ferreyra) Panero & S.E. Freire, two species that represent endemic genera in Peru. For Chionopappus, 48 records and for Paquirea, eight records were collected through direct field observations, consultation of collections deposited in the herbaria HSP, USM, MOL, HUT, HAO, PRG, and digitized collections available via Jstor at MO, NY, K and digital databases of GBIF. ArcGis version 10.6.1 was used to create geographic distribution maps and to calculate the areas of those distributions. MaxEnt program version 3.4.1 (maximum entropy algorithm) was used to model the current distribution areas, potential climate changes and future land use in scenarios for the years 2040, 2060, and 2080. The climate projections were proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and comply with models constructed via global climate layers (WorldClim) and Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS- Climate), and the land-use change model derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and Landsat images generated with the Modules for Land Use Change Simulations (MOLUSCE) of the QGIS geoinformation system. Chionopappus is currently distributed in Peru from the department of Cajamarca to the department of Arequipa; and Paquirea is restricted exclusively to the provinces of Castilla and Caylloma in the department of Arequipa. Current area maps and potential distributions were generated for each genus, whose area under the curve (AUC) was greater in 0.97 and cut-off thresholds values were 0.16-0.32. The variables that contributed the most to climate change models were the bioclimatic variables of maximum and minimum temperature, and for land-use change were the NDVI. Chionopappus benthamii in both scenarios would increase its distribution in central and southern Peru with an increase in its overall area. Alternatively, Paquirea lanceolata would experience a reduction in its distribution and populations, and potentially it could disappear

Keywords : Chionopappus; Paquirea; Asteraceae; endemic genera; Arequipa; Peru.

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